Sunday, April 10, 2005
Goal value
How to count the value of goals? This is a prickly question and the answer lives in constant change. While playing in the mud, down in the league ranks, the quality of every team is under the radar, even the kind of high tech radar stuff that Pentagon and NASA have their fingers on. Down there it is normal to have games with high scoring. Therefore the value of a single goal is very low, as it is normal to have games with over 6 goals and team budgets crawl right beside the team – on the gutter.
What counts in this low league setting is not the attacking end, but defense. Both sides are going to score a lot with poor material so small investment to defense will garner remarkable advantage over other teams. As poor material is able to score against defense it is sensible to invest on goalkeeper and get the best bang for the buck. This will tip the scale and team has good chances to constantly take wins home. It doesn’t matter much if you win 6-1 or 2-1, as you will be able to do that constantly.
Climbing higher in the leagues, more and more teams have made that initial investment on defense, it is therefore harder for strikers to score and race for better attacking material starts. Why is this?
Good defense spells measly number of goals and the value of that definitive winning goal rockets. Team budgets are flying high and win means more money and it can all be counted for the goals that have been delivered. As a result, the value of a goal compared to earlier is stupendous.
In a single sentence, low supply and steady demand for that winning goal meet the increased budgets, making the price of a goal staggering compared to earlier.
It is because of this dynamics that the price of attacking material increases faster than defense material. Defense raises the standard of team but only good attacking material can guarantee the steady advancement of the team. Every goal, especially the winning goal has a price and can be attributed for the maker of the goal. Every saved goal is just speculative and measuring the success of defense is harder to monetize. This can be only done via comparing the for and the against goals. Therefore attacker has direct value for the team and defender has indirect value. Ultimately attacker price is high above defender price.
All of this can be driven from the simple concept of goal value.
What counts in this low league setting is not the attacking end, but defense. Both sides are going to score a lot with poor material so small investment to defense will garner remarkable advantage over other teams. As poor material is able to score against defense it is sensible to invest on goalkeeper and get the best bang for the buck. This will tip the scale and team has good chances to constantly take wins home. It doesn’t matter much if you win 6-1 or 2-1, as you will be able to do that constantly.
Climbing higher in the leagues, more and more teams have made that initial investment on defense, it is therefore harder for strikers to score and race for better attacking material starts. Why is this?
Good defense spells measly number of goals and the value of that definitive winning goal rockets. Team budgets are flying high and win means more money and it can all be counted for the goals that have been delivered. As a result, the value of a goal compared to earlier is stupendous.
In a single sentence, low supply and steady demand for that winning goal meet the increased budgets, making the price of a goal staggering compared to earlier.
It is because of this dynamics that the price of attacking material increases faster than defense material. Defense raises the standard of team but only good attacking material can guarantee the steady advancement of the team. Every goal, especially the winning goal has a price and can be attributed for the maker of the goal. Every saved goal is just speculative and measuring the success of defense is harder to monetize. This can be only done via comparing the for and the against goals. Therefore attacker has direct value for the team and defender has indirect value. Ultimately attacker price is high above defender price.
All of this can be driven from the simple concept of goal value.
